Almost 10 years ago, economic growth took a downward turn causing interest rates to drop, stock market gains to slow and middle-class incomes to remain almost stagnant. As a result, investors have had to change their living standards. “This is perhaps the longest low-growth environment we have seen since the Great Depression, and I’m not being dramatic,” says Mitchell Baden, executive vice president and chief operating officer of Royal Banks of Missouri.
Financial experts say investors need to look realistically at their future as they plan. “Younger people need to adjust their expectations,” says Tom Briggs, vice president of Plaza Advisory Group. “The ’80s stock market where their parents developed their wealth is not there anymore.”
As for older investors, experts say it’s important to know and understand the risks. “In this environment, the only investments seeing substantial gains are stocks, and I wouldn’t suggest everyone move their money to the stock market,” Baden says. “Older investors need to preserve and protect. That can be done through money markets, CDs and treasuries. And all of those are low interest, but they are also low risk. In the old days, you’d be able to live off the interest, but those days are over.”
St. Louis has hardly been immune to the economic issues. It is the largest city in its Federal Reserve Region, which includes parts of Missouri, Illinois, Kentucky, Mississippi, Tennessee and all of Arkansas. “Those areas have seen less substantial economic turnaround than the rest of the country, and a lot of it has to do with St. Louis,” Baden says. “It’s lagging dramatically. If you go to Chicago, Memphis or Kansas City, there is substantially more economic development, and that has caused stagnation here.”
Experts are hopeful there will not be further decline. “We think the likelihood of another recession next year is less than 30 percent,” says Briggs. “There’s a one-in-three chance we are headed to a recession. But real estate is looking good, and jobs have rebounded. We have some headwinds, but there are tailwinds as well. We are cautiously optimistic, but we believe we are in a long-term period of moderate growth in the market.”
While the state of the ecomomy is complex and has risks, financial specialists make it their business to help investors make the right moves. “Work with a professional or an adviser who will make you aware of the potential downsides and help determine whether what you are doing is something you are comfortable with and something your lifestyle can handle,” Briggs says.
“Don’t give up on the U.S. economy,” Baden advises. “We have issues, but we are the strongest in the world and the strongest in history. There will be a change in how we create wealth and make wealth, but this is still the greatest place to be.